HumasUPNVJ – The issue of population in Indonesia is still being discussed which requires more attention. In this regard, UPN "Veteran" Jakarta (UPNVJ) is proud to be the host for the implementation of the Indonesian Population Coordination and Socialization activities (17/05). The activity which took place in the Auditorium Building was the result of a collaboration with the Indonesian Population Coalition (KKI).
On this occasion, Sonny Harry B. Harmadi as General Chairperson of KKI gave insight to the socialization participants consisting of UPNVJ leaders and KKI members themselves as well as several UPNVJ employees. Sonny explained his thoughts on the challenges of the Indonesian and global population.
The socialization begins by explaining the projection of Indonesia's population. Based on the 2015-2045 population projection, the total population of Indonesia in 2045 will be 318.96 million people. With Indonesia's land area of 1.9 million km 2 , Indonesia's population density is 168 people/km 2 . During 2015-2045 the average population growth rate for Indonesia is 0.74 percent per year.
The results of the 2020 population census show that based on the P2020 population census, Indonesia's population in September 2020 was 270.20 million people. Indonesia's population density is 141 people/km 2 on Indonesia's land area of 1.9 million km 2 . However, from 1961 to 2020, the average growth rate of Indonesia's population has continued to decline. During 2010-2020 the average growth rate even reached 1.25 percent.
Furthermore, the population by province in Indonesia based on the results of the 2020 population census shows that the highest population is in West Java Province, namely 48.27 million people. While the lowest was in North Kalimantan Province at 0.70 million people.
When viewed based on the sex ratio, the male population according to the results of the 2020 population census is 50.58 percent or as many as 136.56 million people. This figure is greater than the female population, namely 49.92 percent or as many as 133.54 million people.
Sonny mentioned one of the interesting reasons behind this ratio imbalance. Quoting from his explanation, cultural factors contributed to this. It turns out that the need of a certain culture to maintain one's clan makes a family prefer a son.
Through this discussion it was also discovered that the age structure of Indonesia's population is dominated by the millennial generation and generation Z with a presentation of 25.87 percent and 27.94 percent respectively.
Referring to the results of the 2020 population census, Sonny reported the projection of Indonesia's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) (or what is also known as the Total Birth Rate) for Indonesia for 2020-2050. TFR is the average number of children a woman will give birth to during her reproductive years. Indonesia has now reached the replacement level stage and will even reach a figure below 2.00. This means that Indonesia's population will decrease in the future.
If the birth rate is allowed to drop drastically, it will cause problems. The balance of the young and old age population will be disrupted.
The number of children born is of course related to the total birth rate. If you follow the trend scenario, for the next 20 years, Indonesia's TFR could be below number 2 (ie 1.97 in 2040). If you follow the policy of the Indonesian government, you can maintain the TFR at 2.00.
The implication of this population projection is that Indonesia's demographic bonus period can be prolonged if the TFR can be maintained at 2.1. The demographic bonus in Indonesia will continue until 2040.
Demographic Bonus is National Development Capital
The demographic bonus is a potential economic benefit due to the large number of productive age population. It is said to be successfully utilized if Indonesia is able to transform the demographic bonus into a welfare bonus.
This demographic bonus is marked by a decrease in the dependency ratio below the number 50. Indonesia will be in a demographic bonus during the 2012-2040 period. The peak will occur in 2020-2040.
This golden period is of course very profitable for Indonesia's regional development on the condition that there is a high quality young generation supported by jobs and investment.
The United Nations projects that the number of productive age population (15-64 years) in China (one of the centers of world manufacturing industry activity) will drop significantly from one billion (2010) to 849 million people (2050). Production activities will shift to developing countries that have a large workforce. Developed countries are likely to open a faucet for in-migration to meet the needs of workers.
This condition is an opportunity for Indonesia which is still facing productivity problems. Meanwhile in the United States there is difficulty finding qualified workers due to only 15 percent of higher education graduates taking STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) fields.
Seeing this opportunity, the efforts offered by Sonny to be implemented in Indonesia are:
- If Indonesia wants to be the choice of industrial relocation, education in Indonesia must produce many quality graduates in the STEM field.
- Expand global economic cooperation partners.
- Indonesia must develop highly competitive and efficient cities for industrial locations.
- Considering the development of digital ecosystems and urban innovation.
As a university, UPNVJ also has the opportunity to participate in making this happen. UPNVJ might consider providing learning facilities in the STEM field to support the implementation of the efforts in the first point.